Former President Donald Trump should be quite pleased by the new data being released as part of a poll conducted by Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage, which now shows that he is poised for a possible landslide victory in the general election next month. The poll revealed that Trump has a rather dominant lead over Kamala Harris in several key battleground states that create a very clear path to victory.
The new electoral map now features the former president pulling in 296 electoral votes with Harris only drawing in 226. However, one of the most important pieces of data that is being presented in the poll is how Trump continues to gain ground in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. All three of which were crucial in the previous two presidential elections. What’s more, these states tend to lean to the left, though races are usually close. Now they are headed toward Trump at a steady clip.
In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump holds a lead of one point, while Nevada and Georgia remain highly competitive. Trafalgar’s data suggests a dead heat in Georgia, a state that has been fiercely contested by both parties in recent elections. The shift has been further confirmed by Senate odds, which show a 73% chance of Republicans gaining control of the upper chamber, a move that would drastically reshape the political balance in Washington.
#Updated Electoral Map Based on Trafalgar/Insider Advantage polling
🟥 Trump 296 🏆
🟦 Harris 226
——
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +2.2
Michigan – 🔴 Trump +2.2
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +1.1
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +1
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +1
Nevada – 🔴 Trump +1
Georgia – 🟡 Tie
——… pic.twitter.com/7Kwhf9SlKC— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 2, 2024
As Trump builds momentum, the focus also turns to his vice-presidential running mate, Ohio Senator JD Vance. Vance, known for his populist stances and strong ties to middle America, debated Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz on Tuesday night. The debate, held in a heated atmosphere, covered issues such as the economy, immigration, and foreign policy. While both candidates remained firm on their party’s platforms, polls following the debate showed that Vance’s direct approach resonated more with voters.
In a debate lasting over 90 minutes on the CBS News stage in New York, both men directed more criticism toward their opponent’s respective running mate rather than each other. Walz appeared to struggle throughout the night. The debate, noted for its calm demeanor and emphasis on policy rather than political aggression, appeared to benefit Vance, a notably skilled public speaker.
One of the top prediction markets on earth, Polymarket, has revealed they believe Trump has a 49 percent chance of becoming our next president. This number has gone up over recent months. Harris, however, despite being the current vice president, is now losing ground, especially in both Michigan and Wisconsin. Previously, these two states were basically guaranteed to go to the Democratic ticket. Not so anymore.
A lot of the increase that Trump is seeing is due to the poor policies of the Biden-Harris administration. With these two nincompoops in office for the last three years we’ve witnessed historic increases in inflation, crime, the price of gas and groceries, war all over the place, and of course an invasion along the southern border.
“As the election looms, attention will remain fixed on these battleground states and the critical issues that continue to shape voter sentiment. The race, while still close, increasingly points to a potential Trump victory, a scenario that seemed relatively unlikely just months ago. All eyes are now on the key swing states that will ultimately decide the outcome in November,” the report concluded.